Polling in 190 seats has been completed so far. Polling percentages have shown an interesting trend in comparison with the 2019 elections.
In some respects, the opposition is in a sweet place. They have nothing to lose. They are low on resources, they are losing camp followers and leaders steadily and of the remaining, many are incarcerated by investigative agencies.
And above all they cannot get their act together. They are still convinced they can hold their own in their own pockets. A lot like the 500 odd princes acting against the East India Company of yore.
On the face of it, it is a one horse race and the winner just needs to show up. One wonders what the Kolaveri in the BJP is about.
Voting percentages in the first two phases of the 7 phase election have shown a dip. That should be par for the course, considering it is a one horse race.
The BJP angst being ramped up about minority appeasement and dangers from the minority community, after and during the first two phases, indicates that all may not be well.
The disconcerting bit is the polling drop being more pronounced in the Hindi belt. MP at 9%, UP at 7% and Bihar at 3% were the surprise. This is the very areas that should have been enthused by the Ayodhya Ram Mandir spectacle.
The Hindi heartland should also have been enthused by the tremendous bonanza of welfare programs run by the Central and state govts of these areas.
Even that has not motivated the voter to step out. When one reads this with the army of the BJP cadre and the RSS, adept at booth management, the drop seems more inexplicable.
The media has of course stayed away from analyzing such a sensitive subject. The reason is simple. Historically, there is no correlation established between polling percentages and eventual results in the Indian context. So why stick one’s neck out in these times?
The CSDS Lokniti 2024 pre poll survey placed BJP as the front runner in the elections. But it had tit bits that made interesting reading.
‘Among those who said they would vote for the NDA, there was a 6 point difference between support for the NDA among the more affluent as compared to the poor.’ And the affluent vote less in comparison…….
‘Compared to the national election study of 2019 by Lokniti-CSDS, the share of those satisfied with the govt’s performance has gone down by 8%. As a result, the share of those who wished to give the ruling party another chance was just 5 points higher than those who did not’.
The two main reasons for dissatisfaction with the govt were price rise and unemployment. The survey was conducted 3 weeks to two months before the start of polling. 33% of the respondents said their vote could change between views expressed and polling day.
There can be no denying the disquiet on the job front. 80 crores on free ration for 5 years indicate that it is a subject of concern. When the govt did it during Covid and thereafter it cost 47 billion dollars by an estimate. One can only imagine the cost now.
Another bald stat that says agricultural labor has gone up from 43% to 45% adds to this concern. That means whatever the push for manufacturing, it is not working so far.
This is more worrisome because agricultural growth has slowed down in the last quarter to 1.5% or so. Wage growth in agriculture therefore becomes an area of concern especially with the price rise.
Another spoiler in the mix is the total top down approach in distribution of tickets by the BJP. With heavyweight traffic from other parties migrating to the BJP, win- ability concerns have meant tickets denied to loyal hands. This may explain the lackluster booth management by the BJP cadre in the first two phases.
The actual figures may vary. The remaining phases could buck this trend. A zillion variables are in the mix. But with current trends, 400 appears difficult…..
Decipheringnews 